Each week, Morning Consult surveys tens of thousands of registered U.S. voters and asks whom they would support if the election for their congressional district were held today — with the demographic depth to see who is moving.
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Midterm Update
Prepared by Eli Yokley
Quick look
45%
Democrat
-0.4 pt vs. 4 wk
42%
Republican
+0.2 pt vs. 4 wk
D+3
Margin
▼1 pt vs. 4 wk
12%
Don't know
+0.2 pt vs. 4 wk
The bottom line up front
1
RV topline. Democrats lead the generic ballot D+3 — 45% to 42% among registered voters, with 12% undecided. A 1-point move from the four-week anchor.
2
Independents. Independents sit at D+13 on the ballot — a 10-point shift toward Democrats since the start of the term in January 2025.
3
Gender gap. Women are at D+11; men at R+5 — a 16-point gap.
4
Generations. Gen Z D+26 and Millennials D+0 carry the Democratic advantage; Gen X R+4 and Boomers D+1 tilt to the right of the field.
Topline MOE ±1 pt at full RV sample (n ≈ 24,000 pooled). Subgroup MOEs are larger; see methodology.
Topline trend
Generic ballot · since inauguration
Dem
Rep
DK
Margin
Source: Morning Consult 2026 Midterm Tracking. Registered voters, fielded weekly. Latest: July 5, 2026. n ≈ 24,000 per release; MOE ±1 pt at topline.
Key demographics
Share saying they'd vote Democrat · don't know · Republican. The Δ4w column shows the change in margin (Dem − Rep) vs. the four-week-prior anchor wave — ▲ means Democrats gained ground, ▼ means Republicans did.
All voters
All voters
45%/12/42%
D+3
▼1
Party
Democrats
95%/3/2%
D+93
~
Independents
39%/36/26%
D+13
▲1
Republicans
3%/4/93%
R+90
▼2
Generation
Gen Z
56%/15/29%
D+26
▲5
Millennial
44%/13/44%
D+0
▼1
Gen X
41%/14/45%
R+4
▼3
Baby boomer
45%/10/44%
D+1
▼1
Race / Ethnicity
White
39%/12/49%
R+10
▼1
Hispanic
51%/12/37%
D+14
▼4
Black
72%/13/15%
D+56
▲3
Other
53%/18/29%
D+24
▲3
Gender
Men
42%/10/47%
R+5
~
Women
48%/14/38%
D+11
▼1
Education
No college
43%/15/42%
D+1
~
Bachelor's
50%/10/40%
D+10
▲1
Post-grad
46%/9/45%
D+1
▼4
2024 vote
Kamala Harris
89%/7/3%
D+86
▼1
Donald Trump
6%/9/85%
R+79
~
Watch this
The gender gap is 16 points wide — women at D+11, men at R+5. Independents at D+13 after a 10-point shift toward Democrats since inauguration.
Demographic trends
Stacked area, since inauguration. Dem on top, DK in the middle, Rep on bottom. The Δ4w beside each margin is the four-week change in (Dem − Rep): ▲ Democrats gained, ▼ Republicans gained.
Democrats
Dem
95%
Rep
2%
DK
3%
Margin
D+93 ~
Independents
Dem
39%
Rep
26%
DK
36%
Margin
D+13 ▲1
Republicans
Dem
3%
Rep
93%
DK
4%
Margin
R+90 ▼2
Gen Z
Dem
56%
Rep
29%
DK
15%
Margin
D+26 ▲5
Millennial
Dem
44%
Rep
44%
DK
13%
Margin
D+0 ▼1
Gen X
Dem
41%
Rep
45%
DK
14%
Margin
R+4 ▼3
Baby boomer
Dem
45%
Rep
44%
DK
10%
Margin
D+1 ▼1
White
Dem
39%
Rep
49%
DK
12%
Margin
R+10 ▼1
Hispanic
Dem
51%
Rep
37%
DK
12%
Margin
D+14 ▼4
Black
Dem
72%
Rep
15%
DK
13%
Margin
D+56 ▲3
Other
Dem
53%
Rep
29%
DK
18%
Margin
D+24 ▲3
Men
Dem
42%
Rep
47%
DK
10%
Margin
R+5 ~
Women
Dem
48%
Rep
38%
DK
14%
Margin
D+11 ▼1
No college
Dem
43%
Rep
42%
DK
15%
Margin
D+1 ~
Bachelor's
Dem
50%
Rep
40%
DK
10%
Margin
D+10 ▲1
Post-grad
Dem
46%
Rep
45%
DK
9%
Margin
D+1 ▼4
Kamala Harris
Dem
89%
Rep
3%
DK
7%
Margin
D+86 ▼1
Donald Trump
Dem
6%
Rep
85%
DK
9%
Margin
R+79 ~
Methodology · source of data
How this tracker is built.
Morning Consult's latest reported results reflect data gathered through the week ending July 5, 2026 among a nationally representative sample of registered U.S. voters. The midterm sample pools recent weeks for an MOE of approximately ±1 percentage point on the topline; subgroup MOEs are larger and disclosed where shown.
The survey is conducted online. Respondents are collected via quota sampling based on age, gender, education and voter registration status. Weekly samples are weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, gender, education, race and ethnicity, marital status, parental status, home ownership, geographic region and 2024 presidential vote choice.
